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TransCom 3 inversion intercomparison: Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of regional CO2 fluxes, 1988–2003

Identifieur interne : 009876 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 009875; suivant : 009877

TransCom 3 inversion intercomparison: Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of regional CO2 fluxes, 1988–2003

Auteurs : D. F. Baker [États-Unis] ; R. M. Law [Australie] ; K. R. Gurney [États-Unis] ; P. Rayner [Australie, France] ; P. Peylin [France] ; A. S. Denning [États-Unis] ; P. Bousquet [France] ; L. Bruhwiler [États-Unis] ; Y. Chen [États-Unis] ; P. Ciais [France] ; I. Y. Fung [États-Unis] ; M. Heimann [Allemagne] ; J. John [États-Unis] ; T. Maki [Japon] ; S. Maksyutov [Japon] ; K. Masarie [États-Unis] ; M. Prather [États-Unis] ; B. Pak [États-Unis, Australie] ; S. Taguchi [Japon] ; Z. Zhu [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : ISTEX:4630556E977594EE0396DFEF15ADCF8EAF727DAD

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English descriptors

Abstract

Monthly CO2 fluxes are estimated across 1988–2003 for 22 emission regions using data from 78 CO2 measurement sites. The same inversion (method, priors, data) is performed with 13 different atmospheric transport models, and the spread in the results is taken as a measure of transport model error. Interannual variability (IAV) in the winds is not modeled, so any IAV in the measurements is attributed to IAV in the fluxes. When both this transport error and the random estimation errors are considered, the flux IAV obtained is statistically significant at P ≤ 0.05 when the fluxes are grouped into land and ocean components for three broad latitude bands, but is much less so when grouped into continents and basins. The transport errors have the largest impact in the extratropical northern latitudes. A third of the 22 emission regions have significant IAV, including the Tropical East Pacific (with physically plausible uptake/release across the 1997–2000 El Niño/La Niña) and Tropical Asia (with strong release in 1997/1998 coinciding with large‐scale fires there). Most of the global IAV is attributed robustly to the tropical/southern land biosphere, including both the large release during the 1997/1998 El Niño and the post‐Pinatubo uptake.

Url:
DOI: 10.1029/2004GB002439


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Le document en format XML

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<term>Northern extratropics</term>
<term>Northern land</term>
<term>Northern land regions</term>
<term>Northern ocean</term>
<term>Null hypothesis</term>
<term>Observations department</term>
<term>Ocean basins</term>
<term>Ocean components</term>
<term>Ocean flux</term>
<term>Ocean fluxes</term>
<term>Ocean regions</term>
<term>Ocean uptake</term>
<term>Oceanic</term>
<term>Other regions</term>
<term>Outer envelope</term>
<term>Outgassing</term>
<term>Pacific west</term>
<term>Personal communication</term>
<term>Peylin</term>
<term>Physical mechanisms</term>
<term>Pinatubo eruption</term>
<term>Posteriori</term>
<term>Prabir patra</term>
<term>Prespecified flux patterns</term>
<term>Princeton university</term>
<term>Purdue university</term>
<term>Quality assurance section</term>
<term>Random errors</term>
<term>Random estimation error</term>
<term>Random estimation errors</term>
<term>Random estimation uncertainties</term>
<term>Regional flux magnitudes</term>
<term>Relative uptake</term>
<term>Research institute</term>
<term>Response functions</term>
<term>Robust</term>
<term>Rodenbeck</term>
<term>Scripps inst</term>
<term>Seasonal cycle</term>
<term>Seasonal inversion</term>
<term>Significance results</term>
<term>Significance test</term>
<term>Significant results</term>
<term>Significant variability</term>
<term>Solid lines</term>
<term>Southern ocean</term>
<term>Southern oceans</term>
<term>Standard deviation</term>
<term>Station selection</term>
<term>Subsequent months</term>
<term>Terrestrial biosphere</term>
<term>Test probabilities</term>
<term>Test probability</term>
<term>Time series</term>
<term>Total flux</term>
<term>Transcom</term>
<term>Transport</term>
<term>Transport error</term>
<term>Transport errors</term>
<term>Transport fields</term>
<term>Transport model</term>
<term>Transport model error</term>
<term>Transport model errors</term>
<term>Transport models</term>
<term>Transport uncertainties</term>
<term>Transport uncertainty</term>
<term>Tropical</term>
<term>Tropical asia</term>
<term>Tropical indian</term>
<term>Tropical indian ocean</term>
<term>Tropical land</term>
<term>Tropical land regions</term>
<term>Tropical oceans</term>
<term>Tropics</term>
<term>True variability</term>
<term>Uncertainty</term>
<term>Uptake</term>
<term>Useful estimate</term>
<term>Variability</term>
<term>West lafayette</term>
<term>Xiav</term>
<term>Xmon</term>
<term>biosphere</term>
<term>continents</term>
<term>errors</term>
<term>fires</term>
<term>global</term>
<term>inverse problem</term>
<term>latitude</term>
<term>models</term>
<term>transport</term>
<term>winds</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Asie</term>
<term>Biosphère</term>
<term>Carbone dioxyde</term>
<term>Continent</term>
<term>El Nino</term>
<term>Erreur</term>
<term>Incendie</term>
<term>La Niña</term>
<term>Latitude</term>
<term>Modèle</term>
<term>Monde</term>
<term>Océan Pacifique Est</term>
<term>Problème inverse</term>
<term>Transport</term>
<term>Vent</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en">
<term>Africa boreal asia</term>
<term>America temp</term>
<term>Anthropogenic input</term>
<term>Asia australia europe</term>
<term>Atmospheric</term>
<term>Atmospheric administration</term>
<term>Atmospheric carbon dioxide</term>
<term>Atmospheric environment division</term>
<term>Atmospheric research</term>
<term>Atmospheric science</term>
<term>Atmospheric sciences</term>
<term>Atmospheric transport</term>
<term>Atmospheric transport models</term>
<term>Auxiliary material</term>
<term>Biogeochem</term>
<term>Biogeochemical systems</term>
<term>Biosphere</term>
<term>Bousquet</term>
<term>Broad latitude bands</term>
<term>Cambridge univ</term>
<term>Carbon cycle</term>
<term>Casa land biosphere model</term>
<term>Cement production</term>
<term>Cfwd</term>
<term>Climate change</term>
<term>Climate monitoring</term>
<term>Climatological winds</term>
<term>Coarser scales</term>
<term>Cob</term>
<term>Cobs cfwd</term>
<term>Colorado state university</term>
<term>Constraint</term>
<term>Covariance</term>
<term>Covariance matrix</term>
<term>Csiro marine</term>
<term>Data errors</term>
<term>Data uncertainties</term>
<term>Diagnostics laboratory</term>
<term>Different models</term>
<term>Different transport models</term>
<term>Dioxide</term>
<term>Earth system science</term>
<term>Emission month</term>
<term>Emission regions</term>
<term>Energy information administration</term>
<term>Environmental management technology</term>
<term>Error reduction</term>
<term>Estimation</term>
<term>Estimation uncertainties</term>
<term>Estimation uncertainty</term>
<term>Exponential decay</term>
<term>Extra errors</term>
<term>Extrapolation procedure</term>
<term>Extratropical</term>
<term>Ffwd</term>
<term>Finer scales</term>
<term>Flux</term>
<term>Flux estimates</term>
<term>Flux interannual variability</term>
<term>Flux inversions</term>
<term>Flux magnitudes</term>
<term>Flux results</term>
<term>Flux time series</term>
<term>Flux variability</term>
<term>Fluxes ffwd</term>
<term>Fort collins</term>
<term>Fossil</term>
<term>Fossil fuel</term>
<term>Fossil fuel fluxes</term>
<term>Frontier research center</term>
<term>Fuel emissions</term>
<term>Full globe</term>
<term>Full span</term>
<term>Global</term>
<term>Global biogeochem</term>
<term>Global biogeochemical cycles</term>
<term>Global change</term>
<term>Global change research</term>
<term>Global environment study group</term>
<term>Global partition</term>
<term>Globalview</term>
<term>Globalview values</term>
<term>Good agreement</term>
<term>Gurney</term>
<term>Heimann</term>
<term>Heterotrophic respiration</term>
<term>High significance</term>
<term>Hour ecmwf</term>
<term>Hour giss</term>
<term>Hybrid</term>
<term>Iavs</term>
<term>Increase rate</term>
<term>Independent models</term>
<term>Industrial science</term>
<term>Interannual</term>
<term>Interannual inversion</term>
<term>Interannual inversion results</term>
<term>Interannual trend</term>
<term>Interannual variability</term>
<term>Intermodel</term>
<term>Intermodel spread</term>
<term>Inversion</term>
<term>Inversion intercomparison</term>
<term>Japan agency</term>
<term>Land biosphere</term>
<term>Land ocean</term>
<term>Land regions</term>
<term>Large amounts</term>
<term>Larger regions</term>
<term>Largest impact</term>
<term>Latitude</term>
<term>Latitude band</term>
<term>Latitude bands</term>
<term>Less uptake</term>
<term>Little agreement</term>
<term>Main features</term>
<term>Marginal significance</term>
<term>Massachusetts institute</term>
<term>Matrix</term>
<term>Measurement density</term>
<term>Measurement locations</term>
<term>Measurement sites</term>
<term>Measurement span</term>
<term>Measurement uncertainties</term>
<term>Modeling</term>
<term>More measurements</term>
<term>More uptake</term>
<term>National center</term>
<term>National institute</term>
<term>National oceanic</term>
<term>Nind</term>
<term>Nino</term>
<term>Northern extratropics</term>
<term>Northern land</term>
<term>Northern land regions</term>
<term>Northern ocean</term>
<term>Null hypothesis</term>
<term>Observations department</term>
<term>Ocean basins</term>
<term>Ocean components</term>
<term>Ocean flux</term>
<term>Ocean fluxes</term>
<term>Ocean regions</term>
<term>Ocean uptake</term>
<term>Oceanic</term>
<term>Other regions</term>
<term>Outer envelope</term>
<term>Outgassing</term>
<term>Pacific west</term>
<term>Personal communication</term>
<term>Peylin</term>
<term>Physical mechanisms</term>
<term>Pinatubo eruption</term>
<term>Posteriori</term>
<term>Prabir patra</term>
<term>Prespecified flux patterns</term>
<term>Princeton university</term>
<term>Purdue university</term>
<term>Quality assurance section</term>
<term>Random errors</term>
<term>Random estimation error</term>
<term>Random estimation errors</term>
<term>Random estimation uncertainties</term>
<term>Regional flux magnitudes</term>
<term>Relative uptake</term>
<term>Research institute</term>
<term>Response functions</term>
<term>Robust</term>
<term>Rodenbeck</term>
<term>Scripps inst</term>
<term>Seasonal cycle</term>
<term>Seasonal inversion</term>
<term>Significance results</term>
<term>Significance test</term>
<term>Significant results</term>
<term>Significant variability</term>
<term>Solid lines</term>
<term>Southern ocean</term>
<term>Southern oceans</term>
<term>Standard deviation</term>
<term>Station selection</term>
<term>Subsequent months</term>
<term>Terrestrial biosphere</term>
<term>Test probabilities</term>
<term>Test probability</term>
<term>Time series</term>
<term>Total flux</term>
<term>Transcom</term>
<term>Transport</term>
<term>Transport error</term>
<term>Transport errors</term>
<term>Transport fields</term>
<term>Transport model</term>
<term>Transport model error</term>
<term>Transport model errors</term>
<term>Transport models</term>
<term>Transport uncertainties</term>
<term>Transport uncertainty</term>
<term>Tropical</term>
<term>Tropical asia</term>
<term>Tropical indian</term>
<term>Tropical indian ocean</term>
<term>Tropical land</term>
<term>Tropical land regions</term>
<term>Tropical oceans</term>
<term>Tropics</term>
<term>True variability</term>
<term>Uncertainty</term>
<term>Uptake</term>
<term>Useful estimate</term>
<term>Variability</term>
<term>West lafayette</term>
<term>Xiav</term>
<term>Xmon</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Biosphère</term>
<term>Changement climatique</term>
<term>Combustible fossile</term>
<term>Incendie</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract">Monthly CO2 fluxes are estimated across 1988–2003 for 22 emission regions using data from 78 CO2 measurement sites. The same inversion (method, priors, data) is performed with 13 different atmospheric transport models, and the spread in the results is taken as a measure of transport model error. Interannual variability (IAV) in the winds is not modeled, so any IAV in the measurements is attributed to IAV in the fluxes. When both this transport error and the random estimation errors are considered, the flux IAV obtained is statistically significant at P ≤ 0.05 when the fluxes are grouped into land and ocean components for three broad latitude bands, but is much less so when grouped into continents and basins. The transport errors have the largest impact in the extratropical northern latitudes. A third of the 22 emission regions have significant IAV, including the Tropical East Pacific (with physically plausible uptake/release across the 1997–2000 El Niño/La Niña) and Tropical Asia (with strong release in 1997/1998 coinciding with large‐scale fires there). Most of the global IAV is attributed robustly to the tropical/southern land biosphere, including both the large release during the 1997/1998 El Niño and the post‐Pinatubo uptake.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Allemagne</li>
<li>Australie</li>
<li>France</li>
<li>Japon</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region>
<li>Californie</li>
<li>Colorado</li>
<li>Indiana</li>
<li>New Jersey</li>
<li>Région de Kantō</li>
</region>
<settlement>
<li>Berkeley (Californie)</li>
<li>Princeton (New Jersey)</li>
<li>Tokyo</li>
</settlement>
<orgName>
<li>Université de Princeton</li>
</orgName>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="États-Unis">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Baker, D F" sort="Baker, D F" uniqKey="Baker D" first="D. F." last="Baker">D. F. Baker</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Baker, D F" sort="Baker, D F" uniqKey="Baker D" first="D. F." last="Baker">D. F. Baker</name>
<name sortKey="Baker, D F" sort="Baker, D F" uniqKey="Baker D" first="D. F." last="Baker">D. F. Baker</name>
<name sortKey="Baker, D F" sort="Baker, D F" uniqKey="Baker D" first="D. F." last="Baker">D. F. Baker</name>
<name sortKey="Bruhwiler, L" sort="Bruhwiler, L" uniqKey="Bruhwiler L" first="L." last="Bruhwiler">L. Bruhwiler</name>
<name sortKey="Chen, Y" sort="Chen, Y" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Y." last="Chen">Y. Chen</name>
<name sortKey="Denning, A S" sort="Denning, A S" uniqKey="Denning A" first="A. S." last="Denning">A. S. Denning</name>
<name sortKey="Fung, I Y" sort="Fung, I Y" uniqKey="Fung I" first="I. Y." last="Fung">I. Y. Fung</name>
<name sortKey="Gurney, K R" sort="Gurney, K R" uniqKey="Gurney K" first="K. R." last="Gurney">K. R. Gurney</name>
<name sortKey="Gurney, K R" sort="Gurney, K R" uniqKey="Gurney K" first="K. R." last="Gurney">K. R. Gurney</name>
<name sortKey="John, J" sort="John, J" uniqKey="John J" first="J." last="John">J. John</name>
<name sortKey="Masarie, K" sort="Masarie, K" uniqKey="Masarie K" first="K." last="Masarie">K. Masarie</name>
<name sortKey="Pak, B" sort="Pak, B" uniqKey="Pak B" first="B." last="Pak">B. Pak</name>
<name sortKey="Prather, M" sort="Prather, M" uniqKey="Prather M" first="M." last="Prather">M. Prather</name>
<name sortKey="Zhu, Z" sort="Zhu, Z" uniqKey="Zhu Z" first="Z." last="Zhu">Z. Zhu</name>
</country>
<country name="Australie">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Law, R M" sort="Law, R M" uniqKey="Law R" first="R. M." last="Law">R. M. Law</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Pak, B" sort="Pak, B" uniqKey="Pak B" first="B." last="Pak">B. Pak</name>
<name sortKey="Rayner, P" sort="Rayner, P" uniqKey="Rayner P" first="P." last="Rayner">P. Rayner</name>
</country>
<country name="France">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Rayner, P" sort="Rayner, P" uniqKey="Rayner P" first="P." last="Rayner">P. Rayner</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Bousquet, P" sort="Bousquet, P" uniqKey="Bousquet P" first="P." last="Bousquet">P. Bousquet</name>
<name sortKey="Ciais, P" sort="Ciais, P" uniqKey="Ciais P" first="P." last="Ciais">P. Ciais</name>
<name sortKey="Peylin, P" sort="Peylin, P" uniqKey="Peylin P" first="P." last="Peylin">P. Peylin</name>
</country>
<country name="Allemagne">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Heimann, M" sort="Heimann, M" uniqKey="Heimann M" first="M." last="Heimann">M. Heimann</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="Japon">
<region name="Région de Kantō">
<name sortKey="Maki, T" sort="Maki, T" uniqKey="Maki T" first="T." last="Maki">T. Maki</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Maksyutov, S" sort="Maksyutov, S" uniqKey="Maksyutov S" first="S." last="Maksyutov">S. Maksyutov</name>
<name sortKey="Taguchi, S" sort="Taguchi, S" uniqKey="Taguchi S" first="S." last="Taguchi">S. Taguchi</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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